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             首页 股票学校 股票入门 选股 买入 看盘 跟庄 短线 炒股技巧 技术指标 k线图 MACD 均线 成交量 股票书籍 股票视频 网站导航

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            运用PSY指标判断短线买卖点(图解)

              心理线(PSY,Psychological Line),顾名思义,是一种研究投资者心理趋向的指标,它重点研究投资者在某一段时间内的心态是倾向于买入,还是卖出,并将这种心态转换为确切的数字,从而指导投资者进行买卖操作。

              心理线PSY的设计原理

              我们知道,股市中的投资者往往具有“追涨杀跌”的情绪及操作方式,其实,这正是投资者在炒股时共同心态的反映。心理学研究表明,人的心理预期、情绪、行为等,会在很大程度上受到当前外界因素的影响,从而形成直接的条件刺激,但是对于这种外界因素的出现原因、是否能够持续下去等问题则往往欠缺理性的思考。

              股市中,这种外界因素就是直接以股价的涨跌体现出来的,当股价持续上涨时,由于惯性思维及贪婪情绪的缘故,更多的投资者往往只将注意力集中于股价当前的上涨走势上,而忽略了其随后出现回调、下跌的可能性,这就是多数投资者具有的“涨时看涨”的心态,体现在操作行为上,就是盲目的“追涨”;反之,当股价持续下跌时,由于惯性思维及恐慌情绪的缘故,更多的投资者往往只将注意力集中于股价当前的下跌走势上,而忽略了其随后出现反弹、上涨的可能性,这就是多数投资者具有的“跌时看跌”的心态,体现在操作行为上,就是盲目的“杀跌”。

              可以说,价格走势的上涨或下跌的情况直接影响着投资者的心理,基于这一事实,心理线(PSY)是通过计算N日内上涨天数所占的比例数值来反映投资者心理预期的,即PSY=(N日内上涨天数÷N) xl00,参数N设置为时间周期,一般设置为12日。

              运用PSY指标判断短线买卖点

              心理线指标是将投资者心态具体为数字的一个指标,它在实盘操作中的判断依据主要是基于“物极必反”的原理,即当绝大多数投资者都看好股价将要上涨时,则多说明短期内的上涨力量已经得到了较为充分的消耗,是个股短期内处于超买状态的表现;反之,当绝大多数投资者都看好股价将要下跌时,则多说明短期内的下跌力量已经得到了较为充分的消耗,是个股短期内处于超卖状态的表现。在这一层面上,我们也可以认为心理线(PSY)指标是一个短线的超买超卖型的指标。由心理线(PSY)指标的计算方法可知,0≤PSY≤100,当PSY=50,则表示N日内有一半时间市势是上涨的,另一半是下跌的。

              在实盘操作中,我们主要是结合价格的走势及PSY指标的数值大小来分析预测价格的后期走势的。一般来说,PSY指标值为25-75是心理预期正常理性变动范围,此时,大多数投资者会依据趋势运行的总体情况,按部就班地采取操作,无论是价格处于稳步的上涨走势中,还是持续的下跌走势中,投资者的心态并没有明显的转向,也不会出现极端的买卖情绪,价格后期仍延续原有趋势运行状态的可能性会更大。如果价格走势处于稳健的攀升走势中,则投资者不宜盲目进行短线的高抛,而应积极地持股待涨,因为,心理线数值为25—75说明市场并没有处于明显的超买状态;如果价格走势处于震荡走低之中,则指标也不宜盲目地进行抄底操作或是博取反弹操作,因为,心理线数值为25-75说明市场并没有处于明显的超卖状态。

              图15-1为张江高科(600895) 2009年11月24日至2010年3月12日期间走势图,如图标注所示,此股在此期间的PSY指标数值一直处于25-75的常态之下,与之相对应的股价走势也是波澜不惊,处于震荡走低之中。通过心理线的常态数值,我们可以了解到此股在此期间并没有出现明显的超卖状态,因而,价格走势也难以呈现出超卖状态后的大幅反弹上涨行情,此时,投资者的最好操作策略就是持币观望。

            运用PSY指标

              图15-2为荣盛发展(002146) 2009年4月7日至6月26日期间走势图,如图标注所示,此股在此期间的PSY指标数值一直处于25-75的常态之下,与之相对应的股价走势也是波澜不惊,处于震荡走高之中。通过心理线的常态数值,我们可以了解到此股在此期间并没有出现明显的超买状态,因而,价格走势也难以呈现出超买状态后的大幅下跌回调行情,此时,投资者的最好操作策略就是持股待涨。

            PSY指标运用

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